Countless pundits and partisan spinners are falling all over themselves to predict what four Canadian by-elections in three distinct regions of our country - with only one real upset win among them - means for Canadian politics. I’m happy to join the fray.

First, let’s recap the official party spin as it has filtered out this morning:

Liberals suggest they didn’t expect to win any of the seats. Conservatives feign surprise at winning the Quebec seat and the Bloc reminds everyone that “by-elections don’t matter”. New Democrats pump up their BC win and second place finishes as proof of a faltering Liberal brand and “a step in the right direction” for Team Layton.

Funny thing about Ottawa, it’s a place that likes things “simple." Simple and easy to understand narratives only, please.

The top level analysis being spouted is too simple. And, while I know the inherent risk in extrapolating too much out of 94,830 votes cast, the activities of the past few months on the Hill and public opinion all point to a few key trends to watch in the overall arc of Canadian politics. I see at least four untold stories at play that official spokespeople would probably rather you ignore.

Four untold stories from the by-elections

1. New Democrats have built an electoral apparatus in Quebec. New Democrats when pitted against the Bloc can hold their own, Liberals do not seem to have the organization or energy in Quebec as they do in some parts of Canada. Never before has the orange team played hardball in Quebec: it’s now expected.
2. The above observation leads easily and naturally to the superficial view that Conservatives aren’t quite dead yet in Quebec. True. But, more interesting to me is the overall federalist vote increase. An encouraging sign for those of us who like a united Canada. While I’m loathe to suggest - and won’t - that a vote for a Conservative in Quebec is better than a vote for the Bloc; the trend towards fewer separatist voters is noteworthy.
3. The Greens are stagnating. Their vote was the only one to drop in these four races. What accounts for this? I’d suggest it’s Elizabeth May’s lack of leadership. Beyond seeking to get herself elected, she has not created the same strategic plays as her predecessor Jim Harris. Losing key staff and vision, the Greens recent move out of their Bank Street offices into a much smaller location, and May’s hop-skip-jump to a so-called “winnable” seat up against yet another popular cabinet minister are not the moves the Greens need to win a seat.
4. Voting turnouts are still miserably low. This is a major problem for all the political parties. Something is clearly not working if people are refusing to vote. Last federal election saw 41% of eligible voters fail to show up. It’s easy to blame the voters. It’s harder for political parties to accept blame for failing to convince them voting matters.