Organizations are rightly concerned about investing too many dollars in technology that might not be around tomorrow.

I know of at least one “early mover” in the social media agency world who nearly lost the farm betting on Second Life as a platform. And another invested heavily in MySpace only to find their work slowly becoming less relevant as other channels emerged.

So, if the big guys can’t predict, how can you? It’s simple: don’t try so hard.

Use smart overarching communications principals in a medium-agnostic way. That is to say, your message, story, and brand stay consistent across all mediums. Adding a new medium/channel becomes a question of adapting your message so it’s most easily understood in this “new space”–not trying to adapt the new channel to your message.

That may seem a bit like I’m channeling Marshall McLuhan, so here are a few less theoretical points and some real life key questions I ask before jumping into a new social channel, or advising my clients to jump:

1. Overall investment: How much money does the social channel have on hand? Recent rounds of venture capital investment?
2. Integration with other mediums: Does it talk to other social-channels, or is it a walled garden?
3. Replication: Does it do the exact same thing as another channel I use? What is the cost-benefit-analysis of using the new channel?

Now, here is where I contradict myself a bit.

Because, no matter how many smart questions you ask–the only way you can truly judge if a technology, application, or service is going to work for your purposes is to really use it. Experiment. Know how it works. Jump into new social channels with both feet, get wet and dry off if you hate it.

Graphic courtesy webtreats.mysitemyway.com